Strong Military Forum | Forging the Key to Battlefield Victory Through "What If"

Source-stated date: 22 October 2026 · PLA Daily (解放军报)

强军论坛丨在“如果”中淬炼胜战之钥

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Published22 October 2026, by CMC Political Work Department
Collected2026-10-22 23:43:18 UTC, run 179
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Writing in the PLA's Strong Military Forum column, Zhang Xicheng argues that commanders should apply 反事实思维 (counterfactual thinking) to after-action reviews—interrogating both defeats and victories by positing alternative outcomes to expose root causes rather than surface symptoms. The piece documents a persistent institutional problem the PLA acknowledges in its own professional press: after-action reviews that treat setbacks as isolated technical failures and victories as proof of competence, rather than as data points for systematic diagnosis. The framing—particularly the warning against mistaking luck for ability in live-force confrontation exercises—points to concern that exercise culture rewards the appearance of winning over honest self-assessment, a problem this column addresses through doctrinal argument rather than structural remedy.

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在“如果”中淬炼胜战之钥 ■张西成在练兵备战复盘检讨中，有指挥员会反思：“如果当时我们……就好了。”这一感慨，在心理学上被称为“反事实思维”，即对已经发生且无法更改的事实进行反思：如果当初换种想法、换个打法，结果会不会不一样？它并非让人沉溺于过往的情绪泥潭，而是通过在头脑中构建“如果……就”的替代性假设，达到吃一堑长一智、打一仗进一步的目的。这种思维方式，对于预演未来战场走势、淬炼胜战本领，发挥着积极作用。比武竞赛有名次之分，战场较量有胜负之别。对于失利、失败这一既成事实，复盘检讨、深挖根源是必不可少的环节。“如果当时没有单骑冒进，而是坚守阵地，战局会不会就不一样”“如果我们在强电磁干扰下提前启动备用通信预案，指挥链路是不是就不会中断”……很多时候，一场演习的失利，表面看是某个作战单元行动慢半拍，但像剥洋葱一样，通过对已发生事实的“否定”和假设，便会发现真正的问题症结所在。这种思维工具能够倒逼各级去追问那些容易被忽视的根本性问题，而不是仅仅停留在“头痛医头、脚痛医脚”上。一位哲人讲，人最危险的一种预判，就是把偶然的运气当成自己的实力。一次侥幸成功，便自以为是能力过硬；几次顺风顺水，就笃定自己无往不胜。在实兵对抗中，有时我们胜了，其实可能是险胜，甚至是因为对手犯了低级失误才侥幸过关。所以，面对“胜利”这个既定事实，一些明智的指挥员就会运用“反事实思维”来推理：“如果当时对手的火力再猛一点，如果我们的通信恢复再晚5分钟，我们是不是就会陷入被动挨打的局面？”通过想象一个比现实“更糟”的状态，能够避免部队的盲目乐观。在真正的战场上，我们决不能把胜利寄托在敌人的失误上。只有拿放大镜去寻找自身那些“差点没守住”的致命隐患，才能倒逼指挥员时刻保持清醒头脑，把困难想得更严酷，把底线守得更牢固。战争无法重来，但备战可以反复。提出用好“反事实思维”，只是为改进练兵备战复盘检讨提供一个视角和切入口。要让其在实践中发挥作用，至少应强化三种意识。首先是使命意识，如果使命意识不强，脑子里没有“打仗”这根弦，那么工作和训练就会沦为走过场、搞形式，胜负输赢便成了自欺欺人的假象，“反事实思维”也就失去了意义。其次是责任意识，如果没有视打赢为己任的主人翁意识，那么“反事实思维”再精妙也见不到实效，无法触及思想灵魂。再次是实战意识，一切真问题只有在实战中才能发现，真本领只有在炮火里才能检验，如果实战导向树不起来，所有的反思检讨都无从谈起，“反事实思维”自然也就没有了市场。只有将使命意识、责任意识、实战意识融为一体，才能让这种思维真正转化为推动战斗力生成的内生动力。

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Desk	China Desk
Publishing institution	CMC Political Work Department
Source outlet	PLA Daily (解放军报) (pla_daily)
Source language	zh-Hans — an attribute of the source, not of this record
Source-stated publication date	2026-10-22
Original URL	http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16495276.html
Collected at	2026-10-22 23:43:18 — collection metadata, not a publication time
Content fingerprint	9815dbcdd6d0ca228ed86da988478d184e79eeccb7cb9455d1667ba3fff8d88c — taken when the record was captured, over the stored original title and text
Collection run	179
Analysis model	claude-sonnet-4-6
Prompt version	v1

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Source text. CMC Political Work Department. "强军论坛丨在“如果”中淬炼胜战之钥." PLA Daily (解放军报), 2026-10-22. http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16495276.html.

As held. Indo-Pacific Record, Research Atlas corpus, Record 5506, Snapshot — 2026-10-23 (1,144 records).

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22 October 2026 Thursday Source-stated publication date

CMC Political Work Department
via PLA Daily (解放军报)