Source record CMC Political Work Department · 2026-07-13

仅凭军工扩张难以支撑欧洲安全架构

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Desk	China Desk
Publishing institution	CMC Political Work Department
Source outlet	PLA Daily (解放军报) (pla_daily)
Source language	zh-Hans — an attribute of the source, not of this record
Source-stated publication date	2026-07-13
Original URL	http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16473326.html
Collected at	2026-07-13 15:20:33 — collection metadata, not a publication time
Content fingerprint	72959196921693e061d079bb86948968e6161106082e71a44cafe1edb0b23256 — taken when the record was captured, over the stored original title and text
Collection run	87

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近年来，欧洲在防务领域动作频频。欧盟“重新武装欧洲”计划宣布投入8000亿欧元加强防务建设，“欧洲安全行动”计划拟提供1500亿欧元低息贷款，支持成员国扩充军备。巨额的资金与急切的计划背后，既有欧洲地缘政治焦虑的集中爆发，也有借国防工业自主摆脱对美依赖、搭建地区安全新架构的意图。然而，蓝图虽宏大，策略反而偏狭。欧洲将防务安全赌在军工扩张上，可能只会将地区格局拖入更深的泥潭。欧洲此番军工扩张，表面看是外力倒逼的结果，俄乌冲突延宕，“俄罗斯威胁”被不断渲染放大；美国安全承诺日益摇摆，跨大西洋关系从“默契”滑向“变数”。但更深层的考量在于，欧洲试图实现从“安全消费者”到“安全提供者”的身份转变。因而，其着眼点并不仅停在增加装备数量、提升产能规模上，而是要通过实现军工自主、强化战备能力，建立由自身主导的地区安全架构。这一愿景看似自强自立，实则将安全系在军力上，可谓南辕北辙。首要问题在于经济基础撑不起这场扩军“盛宴”。欧洲经济发展长期低迷，多国政府债务高企，人口老龄化进一步导致福利支出刚性增长。在此背景下，欧洲各国军费开支已连续多年保持高位运行，德国军费连续两年增幅超过两成，波兰国防预算占GDP比重接近5%。这种超常规扩军的可持续性面临严峻考验。近期，从德国叫停F126型护卫舰建造计划，到法德西下一代有人战机研发项目的解体，再到英国放弃83型驱逐舰的研发计划，无不折射出欧洲国家的财政困境与产业瓶颈。军备扩张往往会造成“安全困境”的恶性循环。缺少对话机制支撑的安全，注定是脆弱且不可持续的。在当前高度对抗的地缘态势下，欧洲大规模扩军与俄罗斯的反制措施势必形成螺旋式升级。俄欧军事对峙或将持续加剧，冲突外溢的风险不降反升。欧洲排他性、零和式的安全观，最终只会导向更加危险的对抗格局。本应充当缓冲器的欧洲传统安全对话机制，正呈现全方位弱化态势。作为核心对话渠道的欧安组织此前深陷预算僵局，近期虽达成妥协但预算遭大幅削减，履职能力严重不足。北约—俄罗斯理事会已正式解散，欧盟与俄罗斯高层联系基本冻结，之前的战略对话渠道陷入停摆。种种迹象表明，冷战后欧洲地区形成的合作安全共识，正被重新占据上风的对抗思维蚕食殆尽。一个只有“盾”和“剑”、没有“桥”和“路”的安全架构注定难以稳固。欧洲各国应当认识到，武器装备的多寡、军工产能的高低，从来不是衡量地区安全架构是否可靠的根本标准。真正的安全，从来不是单方面的绝对安全，而是各方都能接受的共同安全；不是靠军备优势堆出来的威慑平衡，而是靠对话信任建起来的战略稳定。只有摒弃冷战思维，充分考虑并尊重各方的合理安全关切，欧洲才能构建起均衡、有效、可持续的安全架构，欧洲大陆才能真正实现持久和平。

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Source text. CMC Political Work Department. "仅凭军工扩张难以支撑欧洲安全架构." PLA Daily (解放军报), 2026-07-13. http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16473326.html.

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